Oct. 3, 2025 – Experts are predicting a moderate flu season – but that doesn't mean it's safe to ignore.
"Last year, we saw high severity, and we are not expecting to have back-to-back [severe seasons]," said Adrienne Keen, PhD, of the CDC's Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics.
But even a moderate flu season can rack up a death toll that would surprise most people, said Ryan Maves, MD, a professor of medicine at Wake Forest University School of Medicine in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, and a member of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. During the 2023-2024 season – considered a relatively average one – there were 28,000 deaths, he said.
Unknowns – like a surprise flu strain – could blow up that forecast. "It's still too early for us to have estimates yet of the number of cases, because the numbers are still so low," said Carrie Reed, PhD, chief of the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch in the Influenza Division at the CDC.
The 2024-2025 flu season was worse than expected, potentially due to higher vulnerability from lower vaccination rates and reduced prior exposure during COVID-19 mitigation years. Early estimates show more than a million hospitalizations – the highest rate since the 2010-2011 season – and as many as 130,000 deaths, including 280 pediatric flu deaths, one of the highest totals since pediatric flu deaths became reportable in 2004.
One thing we know for sure: "We can predict with absolute certainty that there will be a flu outbreak," said William Schaffner, MD, a professor of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tennessee, and a spokesperson for the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases. At highest risk are adults 65 and older, children younger than 2, pregnant people, and those with chronic health conditions. Still, anyone can get seriously ill from the flu – complications can include bronchitis, pneumonia, and even heart problems. "Every emergency room every year during the flu season sees healthy, vigorous young people laid out by the flu," Schaffner said.
Schaffner and other doctors are urging people to act now to be as protected as possible. That's easier this year, thanks to new shifts in how we prevent and detect the flu – including broader access to more flu vaccine options (such as a nasal vaccine you can get at home) and a growing number of over-the-counter tests that make for faster diagnosis and timely treatment.
What's New for the 2025-2026 Flu Season
You may be able to give yourself a nasal vaccine from home.
FluMist, the intranasal spray first approved in 2003 and cleared in 2024 for self-administration or caregiver use, is now available in 34 states through a service called FluMist Home, which delivers the vaccine straight to your door via a third-party online pharmacy. Orders are reviewed by a health professional to confirm eligibility for the shot, which is approved for ages 2 through 49. (For children ages 2-17, it should be given by a parent or caregiver.) It's not recommended for people with severe immunosuppression, young children with asthma, or children and teens on aspirin therapy.
The service is offered in the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
The spray contains a weakened form of live influenza virus and is given through the nose, a welcome option for those who dislike needles. It's the first flu vaccine that does not need to be given by a health care provider – potentially marking a significant shift toward more convenient and accessible vaccines.
You may have access to a "super" flu shot.
Flublok, one of three available "super" flu shots (or high-dose flu shots) is now available to more age groups. Previously approved for ages 18 and older, it's now approved for ages 9 and up. The vaccine contains three times the antigens (substances that trigger an immune response) of a standard flu shot and may provide stronger protection. Studies suggest that the shot lowers the chances of getting sick with the flu and the risk of hospitalization, particularly in older adults. It's one of three high-dose shots recommended for adults 65 and older, and the only one also available to younger age groups.
While evidence of the shot's extra benefits is still limited in younger age groups, it may be a preferred option for those concerned about egg allergy since its manufacture doesn't involve eggs, Schaffner said. But it's worth noting that the risk of severe allergic reactions to egg-based vaccines in people with egg allergies is very low, according to the CDC.
You may have less redness and swelling at the injection site.
Most single-dose syringes – recommended by the CDC – are now free of thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative that can cause minor redness and swelling where you get the shot. Efforts to reduce or eliminate thimerosal in vaccines have been ongoing since 1999, and one of the new updates to this year's CDC guidelines is a recommendation to use thimerosal-free flu vaccines.
You'll have more at-home tests – including combination tests – to choose from.
Testing became easier last year as more at-home kits started showing up in pharmacies and online. In February 2023, the FDA granted the first emergency use authorization for a combination flu-COVID test. Today, there are at least half a dozen such tests available. Most cost about $10 and produce results in 15 minutes. Keeping a couple of these tests on hand can enable faster diagnosis and treatment.
In October 2024, the Healgen Rapid Check COVID-19/Flu A&B Antigen Test became the first over-the-counter flu-COVID test authorized under the traditional marketing pathway. The FDA said the test correctly identified 92% of positive and 99% of negative COVID samples, and 92.5% of positive flu A, 90.5% of positive flu B, and 99.9% of negative flu A and B samples.
Because of the possibility of false negatives, the CDC recommends repeat testing after 48 hours if you get a negative result – and then repeat testing again after another 48 hours if both tests are negative.
How Well Do This Season's Vaccines Work?
Just about everyone should get a flu shot – and those 65 or older should consider a high-dose vaccine (like Flublok) when available. The ideal time for getting the flu shot is in September or October, the CDC says. If you have travel plans, try to get the vaccine at least two weeks in advance "to allow time for it to become effective," said Sarah Sams, MD, a family doctor in Columbus, Ohio, and a board member of the American Academy of Family Physicians.
This year's flu vaccines are designed to protect against influenza A (H1N1), A (H3N2), and B/Victoria viruses – the strains that dominated flu season in the Southern Hemisphere. A CDC report on Sept. 25 found that vaccination there reduced outpatient visits by 50% and hospitalizations by nearly half.
If the same viruses circulate in the U.S., as expected, the vaccines available here might be similarly effective. That means if you get the flu shot, you'll likely cut your risk of needing to see a doctor for the flu and you'll be much less likely to land in the hospital if you do get sick. The vaccine "works best at preventing your infection from getting more severe," Schaffner said.
If you do get sick and you're at high risk of complications, your doctor may prescribe antiviral medication. "They should be started within the first 48 hours [of the start of your symptoms]," said Schaffner.
